There are many reasons for this decline in support for the MQM, but probably the most important factor is the rapidly changing demographics of cities such as Karachi and Hyderabad. Even though these young professionals form a relatively small minority in urban Sindh, their absence from its ranks hurts the MQM when it comes to strengthening its political ideology and propagating its discourse. As a result, instead of the rebellious MQM, they identify with pro-state political parties such as the PTI or the military itself. Unlike their jobless and under-employed counterparts in the 1990s, the Urdu-speaking men in their teens and early 20s of today do not feel marginalized. This was helped by a peak in high-paying jobs in the Middle East (backed by a hike in gas prices) as well as an increase in opportunities in the banking, telecommunication, construction, and multinational sectors of Pakistan. Since 2000, an unprecedented number of urban Sindh dwellers have gained college education and moved up in the socio-economic strata. This time however, the situation is quite different and even the party cadres are not ready to put up a tough fight with the state agencies. As chaos ensued in urban Sindh during the 1990s, MQM-controlled neighborhoods erected protective boundaries against law-enforcement agencies and ordinary citizens readily provided shelter to MQM activists.
The party’s hold on its electorate has weakened and fewer workers are ready to oppose the military as they did in the 1990s. Although the party has a history of turbulence over the last three decades, this time the situation is grimmer than it ever was. Since then, the party has joined and left the provincial government several times, had money laundering cases investigated by the Scotland Yard, broke into several factions, and has been at loggerheads with the military establishment. After enjoying almost 10 years of stability during the Musharraf era, the MQM has fallen into one controversy after another since the murder of Dr Imran Farooq in 2008.
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